Docket Report: Bowe v. U.S.

Update 11/1/25: The current model continues to predict reversal (71 percent). Vote ordering remains mostly unchanged, with possible dissents from a small conservative bloc.

Initial post: This is a habeas case, in which a detained person argues their detention is unlawful (here due to an evolving definition of crime of violence, a predicate for part of the prison sentence). Habeas is a specialized and complicated area of law. And it is far from my area of expertise. So I will not write much on this case. But the underlying question here is whether repeated petitions by a federal prisoner should be dismissed under the habeas statute—or if that requirement applies only to state prisoner petitions. Layered on that is a statutory provision that says Court of Appeals decisions on filing of successive petitions “shall not be appealable,” so it is possible that the Supreme Court cannot hear this case. The Eleventh Circuit read the statute to bar repeated petitions from federal prisoners, in tension with the text of the statute. Notably the government itself says the Eleventh Circuit was in error. The appellant now argues, too, that the Court does not have jurisdiction. Both before and after argument, the model predicted a reversal, so the Court sides with the criminal defendant. Predictions shifted towards affirm during argument, likely because the jurisdictional issue became more central and may be a closer contest. Still, the model predicts a 7-2 vote to reverse, with possible dissents from Alito and Gorsuch.