The LIBERTAD Act—aka Helms-Burton Act, aka Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act—provides for a private cause of action against anyone who “traffics [in] property which was confiscated by the Cuban government” from 1959 forward. This case considers a suit by Havana Docks for activity by the cruise lines that occurred after Havana Dock’s original 99-year concession had come to an end in 2004. The question boils down to whether the statute’s liability is limited by this fact.
Waffling, the District Court first dismissed cases against the cruise lines on this basis—i.e., the viability of Havana Docks’ claim expired with its original concession. Then the District Court reconsidered, changed its mind, finding that the interest was only set to expire in 2004, and the claim did not lapse when the concession would have otherwise ended absent confiscation. The Eleventh Circuit reversed the District Court, and Havana Docks petitioned for review by the Supreme Court. The Trump Administration supports reversing.
The model predicts that the Court will, in fact, with Justice Jackson joining a conservative group including Justices Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch. The most likely to dissent would be Justices Kagan and Sotomayor. Overall, the model suggests reversal with about 2/3 probability.
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