The Fourteenth Amendment's Citizenship Clause provides that "all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside." Since Wong Kim Ark, the settled reading has been that the Clause confers citizenship on virtually all children born on U.S. soil.
The question in Trump v. Barbara is whether Executive Order 14160 can redefine "subject to the jurisdiction" to require political allegiance plus a parent's lawful permanent domicile, thus denying birthright citizenship to the children of undocumented immigrants and temporary visitors.
Executive Order 14160 was issued in January 2025. A class of children born after the order filed suit in federal court, where the district court judge preliminarily enjoined enforcement as to the class. The case reached the Supreme Court on cert directly. During argument, the justices seemed soundly against the order.
However, the model predicts that the Court will reverse. It might be leaning into priors on reversals and immigration cases. Based on what I know of the case, I expect the model to be wrong here—but there we are.
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