Docket Report: Watson v. Republican National Committee

Watson v. Republican National Committee is a fight about the federal Election Day. After the 2020 pandemic, Mississippi amended its absentee-ballot statute to count mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day and received within five business days. In 2024, the Republican National Committee sued under the federal Election Day statute to enjoin the late-ballot deadline. The Southern District of Mississippi upheld the law, and a Fifth Circuit panel reversed. The Fifth Circuit read the word “election” to include the receipt of ballots—“election day,” they held, “is the day for which ballots must be both cast and received.” Mississippi argued other statutes suggested that Congress authorized post-election-day receipt, and also pressed a mailbox-rule analogy borrowed from contract law. The Fifth Circuit resisted those arguments and remanded for the district court. Based on oral argument, many observers seem to think that the Court will affirm the Fifth Circuit. The model, however, predicts reversal (6-3), with likely dissents by Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh.