This page reports the current predictions for the Court's votes this term. Each dot is the model's best estimate, and the intervals reflect uncertainty around that estimate, adjusted so that it captures the correct outcome approximately 90 percent of the time. Docket reports are posted on the main page after each case is argued.
Methods in brief
Predictions come from experience-6, an ensemble of customized transformer-based models trained to learn the justices' preferences from party filings, lower-court decisions, oral argument, and amicus briefs. The model uses only information available up to the day of oral argument. Validated against a held-out term (OT2025), it reached TBA percent vote-level and TBA percent case-level accuracy; its uncertainty intervals are calibrated to capture the correct outcome about 90 percent of the time. Full methodology
Predictions summary
Predictions for the new term will appear here in the fall.
Past terms: OT25