This page reports the current predictions for the Court's votes this term. Each dot is a point estimate, and the intervals reflect uncertainty around that estimate, adjusted on hold out data such that a decision rule of reverse if probability > 0.5 captures the correct outcome approximately 90 percent of the time. The docket reports will generally be available on the main page after the case is argued. Archived predictions lower on the page.
Updated: October 31, 2025
Model: experience-3
Archived predictions: October 21, 2025
Model: experience-2
This page reports the current predictions for the Court's votes this term. Blue indicates a predicted reversal, and grey indicates a predicted affirmance; the darker the color, the more confident the model is in the prediction (e.g., white means 50-50, dark blue means very likely reverse). Predicted vote-counts are in parentheses, first listing reverse counts then affirm counts. The docket reports will generally be available after the case is argued by clicking on the case name. Archived predictions lower on the page.
Updated: October 21, 2025
Model: experience-2
Archived predictions: October 14, 2025
Model: experience-1
Updated: October 31, 2025
Model: experience-3
Archived predictions: October 21, 2025
Model: experience-2
This page reports the current predictions for the Court's votes this term. Blue indicates a predicted reversal, and grey indicates a predicted affirmance; the darker the color, the more confident the model is in the prediction (e.g., white means 50-50, dark blue means very likely reverse). Predicted vote-counts are in parentheses, first listing reverse counts then affirm counts. The docket reports will generally be available after the case is argued by clicking on the case name. Archived predictions lower on the page.
Updated: October 21, 2025
Model: experience-2
| Case Name | Docket | Pre-Argument Prediction | Post-Argument Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett v. U.S. | 24-5774 | Reverse (9-0) | Reverse (7-2) |
| Berk v. Choy | 24-440 | Reverse (9-0) | Reverse (5-4) |
| Bost v. Illinois State Board of Elections | 24-568 | Reverse (9-0) | Reverse (5-4) |
| Bowe v. U.S. | 24-5438 | Reverse (9-0) | Reverse (7-2) |
| Chiles v. Salazar | 24-539 | Reverse (9-0) | Reverse (7-2) |
| U.S. Postal Service v. Konan | 24-351 | Reverse (7-2) | Reverse (5-4) |
| Villarreal v. Texas | 24-557 | Affirm (2-7) | Reverse (5-4) |
| Case v. Montana | 24-624 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Chevron USA Inc. v. Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana | 24-813 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Coney Island Auto Parts Unlimited v. Burton | 24-808 | Reverse (7-2) | -- |
| Cox Communications v. Sony Music Entm't | 24-171 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Department of Education v. Career Colleges and Schools of Texas | 24-413 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Ellingburg v. U.S. | 24-482 | Reverse (6-3) | -- |
| Enbridge Energy, LP v. Nessel | 24-783 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Corporacion Cimex, S.A. | 24-699 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Fernandez v. U.S. | 24-556 | Affirm (3-6) | -- |
| First Choice Women's Resource Centers v. Platkin | 24-781 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd. | 24-345 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Galette v. New Jersey Transit Corporation | 24-1021 | Reverse (6-3) | -- |
| Hamm v. Smith | 24-872 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| Havana Docks Corporation v. Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. | 24-983 | Reverse (7-2) | -- |
| Hencely v. Fluor Corporation | 24-924 | Reverse (5-4) | -- |
| Hunter v. U.S. | 24-1063 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Landor v. Louisiana Department of Corrections and Public Safety | 23-1197 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Learning Resources v. Trump | 24-1287 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| Little v. Hecox | 24-38 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| Louisiana v. Callais | 24-109 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| M & K Employee Solutions, LLC v. Trustees of the IAM National Pension Fund | 23-1209 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC | 24-1238 | Reverse (6-3) | -- |
| National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission | 24-621 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| Olivier v. City of Brandon, Mississippi | 24-993 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Pung v. Isabella County, Michigan | 25-95 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| Rico v. U.S. | 24-1056 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Rutherford v. U.S. | 24-820 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| The GEO Group v. Menocal | 24-758 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| The Hain Celestial Group v. Palmquist | 24-724 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Trump v. Cook | 25a312 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Trump v. Slaughter | 25-332 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Urias-Orellana v. Bondi | 24-777 | Affirm (0-9) | -- |
| West Virginia v. B.P.J. | 24-43 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| Wolford v. Lopez | 24-1046 | Reverse (6-3) | -- |
Archived predictions: October 14, 2025
Model: experience-1
| Case Name | Docket | Pre-Argument Prediction | Post-Argument Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal v. Texas | 24-557 | Affirm (2-7) | Affirm (4-5) |
| Berk v. Choy | 24-440 | Reverse (7-2) | Reverse (6-3) |
| Barrett v. U.S. | 24-5774 | Reverse (9-0) | Reverse (5-4) |
| Chiles v. Salazar | 24-539 | Reverse (9-0) | Reverse (8-1) |
| Bost v. Illinois State Board of Elections | 24-568 | Affirm (3-6) | Reverse (6-3) |
| U.S. Postal Service v. Konan | 24-351 | Reverse (7-2) | Reverse (9-0) |
| Bowe v. U.S. | 24-5438 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Ellingburg v. U.S. | 24-482 | Reverse (5-4) | -- |
| Case v. Montana | 24-624 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Louisiana v. Callais | 24-109 | Reverse (6-3) | -- |
| Rico v. U.S. | 24-1056 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Hencely v. Fluor Corporation | 24-924 | Reverse (5-4) | -- |
| Coney Island Auto Parts Unlimited v. Burton | 24-808 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| The Hain Celestial Group v. Palmquist | 24-724 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Learning Resources v. Trump | 24-1287 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| The GEO Group v. Menocal | 24-758 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Landor v. Louisiana Department of Corrections and Public Safety | 23-1197 | Affirm (2-7) | -- |
| Rutherford v. U.S. | 24-820 | Reverse (7-2) | -- |
| Fernandez v. U.S. | 24-556 | Affirm (3-6) | -- |
| Chevron USA Inc. v. Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana | 24-813 | Reverse (6-3) | -- |
| Cox Communications v. Sony Music Entm't | 24-171 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Enbridge Energy, LP v. Nessel | 24-783 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Corporacion Cimex, S.A. | 24-699 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| First Choice Women's Resource Centers v. Platkin | 24-781 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd. | 24-345 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| Galette v. New Jersey Transit Corporation | 24-1021 | Affirm (3-6) | -- |
| Hamm v. Smith | 24-872 | Reverse (7-2) | -- |
| Havana Docks Corporation v. Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. | 24-983 | Reverse (5-4) | -- |
| Little v. Hecox | 24-38 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| M & K Employee Solutions, LLC v. Trustees of the IAM National Pension Fund | 23-1209 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC | 24-1238 | Reverse (7-2) | -- |
| National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission | 24-621 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Olivier v. City of Brandon, Mississippi | 24-993 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Pung v. Isabella County, Michigan | 25-95 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Trump v. Cook | 25a312 | Reverse (6-3) | -- |
| Trump v. Slaughter | 25-332 | Reverse (7-2) | -- |
| Urias-Orellana v. Bondi | 24-777 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| West Virginia v. B.P.J. | 24-43 | Reverse (8-1) | -- |
| Wolford v. Lopez | 24-1046 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |
| Department of Education v. Career Colleges and Schools of Texas | 24-413 | Reverse (9-0) | -- |