If the police do not have a warrant, and do not have probable cause that an emergency is occurring, can they enter your home? The police entered the home of...

Update 11/1/25: The experience-3 model continues to predict reverse (56 percent) but there is considerable uncertainty: the ninety percent band of reversal probability runs from 46 percent to 70 percent....

Update 11/1/25: The current model continues to predict reversal (71 percent). Vote ordering remains mostly unchanged, with possible dissents from a small conservative bloc. Experience-3 predictions Initial post: This is...

I spent a fair amount of effort exploring various model architectures and configurations, all of which tend to modestly affect performance relative to the configuration for the reported results. However,...

Update 11/1/25: A shift toward the the possibility the Court votes to affirm in the experience-3 model. The probability of reversal dipped to 49 percent. There is uncertainty about that...

Update 11/1/25: Experience-3 predictions closely resemble earlier predictions: 69 percent chance of reversal. Likely dissent from Thomas; Kagan joins a conservative majority bloc; close votes from Jackson, Sotomayor, and Barrett....

Update 11/1/25: Experience-3 continues to predict reversal (74 percent) with vote ordering roughly as earlier. I would expect 1-2 dissents, possibly by ideological opposites. Experience-3 predictions Update 10/22/25: The updated...

Update 11/1/25: The updated model (experience-3) continues to predict reversal, with roughly the same probability (70 percent). Vote ordering remains roughly the same, with possible dissents from a conservative bloc....

Update 11/1/25: The updated model (experience-3) continues to predict reverse (65 percent), though there is a reasonable amount of uncertainty (ninety percent band of 49-75 percent). Four clear reverse votes...

Update 11/1/25: The updated model (experience-3) continues to predict reverse (61 percent), with vote ordering approximately as before. Gorsuch, Barrett, and Kagan are the closest votes. Experience-3 predictions Update 10/22/25:...

Today is the first day of oral arguments and is my self-imposed deadline for committing to early predictions for the term as it exists. I plan to run another experiment...

Often it will be of interest to predict what the Court would do before oral argument, before amicus or party briefs arrive, or before even a cert petition. A lower...

Most published Supreme Court vote predictions include near-term information, including oral argument and amicus data. The earlier predictions I posted included that information, too, and using that information the model...

Update 11/1/25: See the methods page for current model. Initial post: It is notoriously difficult to predict Supreme Court votes. The leading algorithmic approaches produce vote-level predictions with about 70...

Thanks for visiting! A little about me -- I am a professor at Cornell, where I teach and research in public law and quantitative methods. Most of my recent work...