July 7, 2026 • jed
The Court has issued its final decisions for the merits docket and it’s time to take stock of model performance. Overall, the model did about as well as it did...
January 14, 2026 • jed
The Court released decisions in three cases today, in addition to one from earlier in January. Time to perform an initial assessment of the model’s predictions in this live experiment....
October 21, 2025 • jed
I spent a fair amount of effort exploring various model architectures and configurations, all of which tend to modestly affect performance relative to the configuration for the reported results. However,...
October 6, 2025 • jed
Today is the first day of oral arguments and is my self-imposed deadline for committing to early predictions for the term as it exists. I plan to run another experiment...
September 19, 2025 • jed
Often it will be of interest to predict what the Court would do before oral argument, before amicus or party briefs arrive, or before even a cert petition. A lower...
September 18, 2025 • jed
Most published Supreme Court vote predictions include near-term information, including oral argument and amicus data. The earlier predictions I posted included that information, too, and using that information the model...
September 11, 2025 • jed
Update 11/1/25: See the methods page for current model. Initial post: It is notoriously difficult to predict Supreme Court votes. The leading algorithmic approaches produce vote-level predictions with about 70...
September 9, 2025 • jed
Thanks for visiting! A little about me -- I am a professor at Cornell, where I teach and research in public law and quantitative methods. Most of my recent work...